Understanding retail demand planning: avoiding stockouts and maximising sales

In this article, we discuss the importance of retail demand planning for maximising sales, how to do it effectively and the role business finance can play in balancing supply and demand.

September 13, 2024
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Most retailers have experienced issues with running out of stock or carrying too much inventory. Effective stock control relies on smart systems and processes that help you avoid stockouts and wastage and keep your customers happy.

What is demand planning (and forecasting)?

Demand planning and forecasting are the basic strategies that help businesses predict and meet customer demand. It’s particularly crucial for retail and ecommerce brands aiming to coordinate their supply chain, manage their working capital and operate efficient stock control. 

What’s more, if you’re subject to seasonal and market fluctuations, accurate inventory management and forecasting are the difference between riding a wave of high sales or missing out and being left with a mountain of depleted stock to shift. 

Effective retail demand planning and forecasting helps you to:

  • Avoid stockouts and frustrated customers
  • Reduce unnecessary discounting that eats into profits
  • Make the most of your working capital
  • Understand sales trends and customer needs
  • Improve customer satisfaction
  • Boost brand reputation and maintain loyalty

2023 research from Retail Insight revealed that 82% of UK shoppers have experienced out-of-stock products in-store, and 60% online. Hundreds of billions of pounds in lost sales globally can be attributed to stockouts and inventory issues. 

Paul Boyle, CEO at Retail Insight, said: “When items are unavailable, hidden, or damaged, the resulting lost sales can be as much as 8% of revenue – an opportunity retailers can ill-afford to lose.”

How do retailers forecast demand and why?

So, to successfully cater to customer needs and run effective stock control, you need accurate forecasting to inform key decisions. That requires sophisticated forecasting tools and techniques.

Popular demand forecasting methods include time series analysis, scenario analysis, linear regression, moving average demand, demand sensing and collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR)

These are all useful ways to predict future demand, sales and potential disruptions, based on various data sets and variables.

Choosing demand forecasting software for your business

There are various demand forecasting tools available to help you predict future demand and optimise inventory management, offering analytics and predictive capabilities, many powered by AI.

When choosing demand forecasting software for your retail business, consider the following questions:

  • Does the solution enable real-time data integration?
  • What AI and machine learning capabilities does the platform have?
  • Is the interface user-friendly?
  • What is the pricing model and are there any hidden costs?
  • How easy is the platform to implement/integrate?
  • Are some features only available in certain subscription tiers?

Before implementing demand forecasting software, identify your business needs and thoroughly research different software solutions, comparing their features and running through the questions above. Plus, we suggest getting demos and taking advantage of free trials to see the solutions in action and decide whether they meet your expectations. 

How supply and demand affect planning and control

Understanding supply and demand dynamics in retail allows you to maintain the right inventory levels. Harnessing data is where you can improve your retail demand planning. While your chosen forecasting software will allow you to take a data-driven approach, it requires dedicated monitoring to make the most accurate predictions.

When developing your supply and demand strategies, include the following factors:

  • Seasonality and typical peak periods
  • Economic conditions in your target region
  • Behavioural analysis to monitor/learn from customer trends
  • Promotional activity
  • Market trends and industry-specific events
  • What ecommerce and retail finance solutions can help you increase sales

This will support you with comprehensive demand planning (armed with modern forecasting tools), incorporating the main influencing factors and strategic considerations, to balance supply and demand effectively. 

Using data-driven demand planning for retail

A data-driven approach to retail demand planning lets you coordinate multi-channel retail operations and give you powerful insights and segmentation opportunities – important for retailers operating online, in-store and within partnerships. 

So, let’s look at the impact of demand planning on inventory management, operational efficiency and customer loyalty.

Benefits of effective demand planning

Here are the key ways effective demand planning can empower your retail business:

  • Enhanced inventory management – maintain appropriate inventory levels, reducing the risks of overstocking or stockouts​​​​.
  • Minimising carrying costs – reduces the need for product markdowns or discounts to clear excess inventory​​​​.
  • Increased agility – enabling you to adjust according to changing needs.
  • Streamlined operations – offering cost-savings, process efficiencies and better resource allocation.
  • Improved customer satisfaction – meeting customer demand consistently and preventing frustration from stockouts boosts reputation and fosters loyalty.
  • Freeing up working capital – avoids tying up crucial cash in excess stock.

Risk management and predicting business outcomes

Beyond the benefits mentioned, good retail demand planning includes risk management. 

Certain factors will always be out of your control but you can still put measures in place to cater for unforeseen events and mitigate risks.

You can use demand planning to improve risk management in the following ways:

  • Leverage new technologies to predict business outcomes and detect risks
  • Carry out scenario analysis to forecast the impact of different demand levels on your operations and finances​​
  • Use demand sensing for real-time data analysis and AI-driven insights
  • Diversify your suppliers to avoid being overdependent on certain third parties
  • Work closely with these third parties to get the full picture of the supply chain
  • Consider a safety stock as a buffer in the event of spikes in demand
  • Build an emergency fund for unforeseen circumstances
  • Use relevant business finance solutions to boost your working capital, remain agile or cover unexpected costs

How to combine retail finance and retail demand planning

Demand planning and forecasting help retailers predict, anticipate and meet customer demand, reduce risks and improve efficiency. Powered by the right technology and a clear view of what you need and when you’ll be in a good position to balance supply and demand. Then, you can use business finance to support your needs.

Whether it’s a lump sum to ramp up activities and invest in peak season opportunities, a short-term funding option to help you during a slow period or a working capital loan to ease cash flow issues, business finance solutions can help. Use your planning data and predictive tools to inform your financial decisions.

Alternative finance lenders allow small businesses to scale and adapt to changing demand and market conditions, ease financial concerns and spark growth. Providers like iwoca offer flexible options tailored to your needs, which can be easily accessed without lengthy applications or a pristine credit history.

Short-term loans or revenue-based financing solutions, like merchant cash advances, which provide capital to be repaid as a percentage of future transactions, are ideal for retailers. But you can choose a solution that’s right for you.

Flexible business loans for retailers

At iwoca, we make it simple for businesses to access crucial capital. Our flexible business loans can help you purchase additional stock in anticipation of high-demand periods, avoid stockouts​​ or waste and capitalise on key sales opportunities. When you identify a surge or drop in demand, we arm you with the necessary funds.

Use our small business loans to get fast access to finance for replenishing inventory (to boost customer satisfaction), easing cash flow and maximising sales performance.

See how easy it is to apply for a loan with iwoca and discover how we can fuel your retail business planning.

Henry Bell

Henry is an experienced financial writer with 8+ years of expertise covering the financial industry and small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs).

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